Know Your Opponent: Colorado State

The Rams cracked the national rankings this week for the first time since 1954, 20 months before Colorado State coach Larry Eustachy was born. SDSU is hoping this national recognition is going straight to their heads. San Diego State has won three straight and 12 of 13 against Colorado State, including a 79-72 victory in overtime on January 12th. That lone loss, however, came in the Aztecs’ most recent visit to Fort Collins on January 28, 2012.

Ken Pomeroy Statistics

[table id=3 /]

Where the Rams Struggle

The Rams really struggle to force turnovers. Outside of that, they really only have one bad loss: on the road against Illinois-Chicago. They have been a dominant team at home.

Where They Are Strongest

The Rams possess an overwhelming rebounding advantage in every game they play. Colorado State ranks first in KenPom ratings with a defensive rebounding rate of 77.3%. They also dominate the offensive boards, ranking second in the nation at 42.6%. The Rams just flat out rebound.

Colorado State’s Season to Date

  • Wins (Team Rank is from KenPom.com)

No. 142 Montana (72-65)
NR Chadron St. (93-50)
at No. 52 Denver (60-53)
at No. 82 Washington (73-55)
No. 257 Northern Colorado (85-69)
No. 110 Evansville (79-72)
No. 263 North Florida (83-55)
No. 245 Cal St. Bakersfield (78-58)
No. 273 Portland (70-53) – neutral
No. 159 Virginia Tech (88-52) – neutral
NR Adams St. (80-55)
No. 118 Texas El Paso (62-58)
No. 111 St. Bonaventure (85-64)
No. 90 Air Force (79-40)
No. 31 Nevada Las Vegas (66-61)
at No. 144 Fresno St. (74-63)
No. 64 Boise St. (77-57)
No. 63 Wyoming (65-46)
at No. 134 Nevada (73-69)

  • Losses

at No. 42 Colorado (70-61)
at No. 185 Illinois Chicago (64-55)
at No. 24 San Diego St. (79-72 OT)
at No. 33 New Mexico (66-61)

Average Score, Colorado State vs. Top 75: Opponent 61.7, Colorado State 66 (4.3)
Average Score, Colorado State vs. Top 76-150: Opponent 60.8, Colorado State 74.6 (13.8)
Average Score, Colorado State vs. Top 151-250: Opponent  58, Colorado State 73.7 (15.7)
Average Score, Colorado State vs. Top 251+: Opponent 56.4, Colorado State 82.2 (25.8)

Keys to the Game

The Aztecs have to control two key factors to pull out the win. If they want to stick around they’re going to need to hold on to the ball, giving up minimal turnovers. SDSU also needs to get the rebounding margin as close to even as possible. Letting the rebounding get out of control will allow Colorado State far more possessions than the Aztecs can afford to give them.

Prediction

SDSU needs this. A win in Fort Collins should be exactly what the Aztecs need to get back into the rankings. They’ll have done their work going into the weekend. Unfortunately, the Rams will maintain their home dominance this season with a 67-63 win.

2 Replies to “Know Your Opponent: Colorado State”

  1. Brian, these predictions have been almost spot on.  Great work! I was going to talk about ScoreCasting referee omission, but the last 2 minutes was just horrible calls, not omitted ones.

Comments are closed.